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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas last night.  It's here.

OCTOBER 22,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

READ WITH CAUTION – FROM THE HILL:   Republican-affiliated voters are outpacing Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in several states with key elections this fall, according to NBC News.  The news outlet, citing data provided by TargetSmart, reports that Republican-affiliated early voters are exceeding Democratic-affiliated early voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas.   The only state where Democratic-affiliated voters are outperforming Republicans is in Nevada, according to the eight races for which TargetSmart provided data to the outlet.  Okay, sounds good, but I wouldn't take this to the bank.  Most of the votes will be cast on election day.

I LOVE IT, I LOVE IT – FROM THE HILL:   White House chief of staff John Kelly and former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski got into a physical altercation earlier this year outside the Oval Office and had to be separated by the Secret Service, The New York Times reported Monday.   The Times, citing a half-dozen people familiar with the altercation, reported that Kelly grabbed Lewandowski "by the collar and tried to have him ejected from the West Wing."  The altercation occurred on Feb. 21 and was preceded by an argument between the two men, according to the newspaper.  The two men were inside the Oval Office that day with Trump, and Kelly reportedly complained to the president that Lewandowski was making money off Trump through a contract with a super PAC supporting Trump's reelection, according to the Times.   Kelly was also angry because Lewandowski had criticized him on television for his handling of security clearances for Rob Porter, the newspaper reported. Porter is a former top aide to President Trump who resigned amid abuse accusations from his two ex-wives.  Ah, passion and intrigue in the White House.  Soon to be a minor motion picture.

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – FROM PJ MEDIA:   The creators of the ACT test announced on Wednesday that scores for the class of 2018 are the worst reported in decades. Math scores, in fact, are in freefall among ACT-tested U.S. high school graduates, falling to their lowest mark in 14 years, according to The Condition of College and Career Readiness 2018, the ACT’s annual report.  The report includes ACT test results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  "The percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or surpassed the ACT College Readiness Benchmark in math—suggesting they are ready to succeed in a first-year college algebra class—fell to its lowest level since 2004," the report declared, with only 40 percent of 2018 graduates meeting the benchmark, "down from a high of 46% in 2012."  The average score on the ACT math test dropped to its lowest level in 20 years — 20.5 on a scale of 1 to 36. American students scored 21.1 in 2012 and 20.7 last year.  If we do not cure the mediocrity and cronyism in our school systems, we can easily turn into a second-rate nation.

October 22, 2018       Permalink

NOBLE MIGRANTS? – AT 11:30 P.M. ET:   You'd think, from some left-wing press reports, that the crowd of "migrants" coming north to our southern border is something on the moral order of the Biblical exodus.  It ain't.  From DC Whispers: 

While the Establishment Media continues to portray the 4000-7000 strong human caravan marching north as merely a group of people seeking asylum and/or jobs, the actual actions within this group paint a very different and troubling reality. These people are acting more and more like an invading force and not like mere refugees. 

Via Newsweek: 

DONALD TRUMP IS THE ‘ANTICHRIST’ AND IS ‘GOING TO HELL,’ IMMIGRANT FROM CARAVAN SAYS

Central American migrant has blasted President Donald Trump in angry comments to CNN’s Bill Weir at the border between Mexico and Guatemala.

“Donald Trump is the antichrist,” the unidentified man can be seen saying in Spanish during a CNN report aired this weekend on the immigrant caravan that has traveled to the Mexican border from Honduras. “If he doesn’t repent, he’s going to hell,” the man adds.

Thousands of Central American migrants have joined a caravan that originally formed more than a week ago in Honduras. Trump has repeatedly threatened Central American leaders with complete aid cuts if the group’s progress is not stopped. On Thursday, the president also called on Mexican authorities to stop the caravan’s progress once it reached Mexico’s southern border.

COMMENT:  We still have no serious reporting on who is financing and directing this venture.  But the notion that the timing, coinciding with our great national election in two weeks, is mere coincidence, is nuts.  I'd like to see some investigative reporting, but that might frustrate the media's attempts to sanitize the great march.  All they need is a Moses.  Charlton Heston, wherever you are, call your agent.

October 22, 2018       Permalink

BLUE WAVE?  WELL... – AT 2:18 P.M. ET:   It still may happen, but the Dems are plainly worried that the result on election night will not be as advertised.  Allowing Republicans to vote was clearly a big mistake.  From Fox: 

Top Democrats are working to manage expectations about a "blue wave" sweeping the party into power on Capitol Hill, urging caution about those predictions amid fresh signs that the midterms could be much closer than anticipated.

With just over two weeks to go before the critical elections, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said Monday that he doesn’t use the term “blue wave” to talk about a possible victory for his party. Even though House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi -- who has her eyes on the speaker's gavel -- said just days earlier they could be looking at a Democratic "tsunami," Perez predicted a tight race for control of Congress.

“We always knew that this election was going to be close — I don’t use the term ‘blue wave,’ I always talk about the need for the blocking and tackling,” Perez told CNN. “I always talk about the need for organizing, to make sure you’re leading with your values, and that’s how we’ve been winning throughout this year and throughout 2017.”

What values are those?  Harassing public officials in restaurants?

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders cast even more doubt on the "wave" narrative.

“A lot of people talk about this 'blue wave' and stuff,” Sanders told The Hill. “I don’t believe it.”
Sanders, an independent who ran for president in 2016 as a Democrat, added: “I happen to think that on election night we’ll find a very, very close situation and maybe a handful of votes determining whether Democrats gain control of the House.”

The cautious comments come as the shifting midterm landscape reflects a Republican advantage in the Senate and the likelihood of a tough fight for control of the House -- which could be determined by just a handful of races, even as Democrats are still seen as having the edge.

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Monday on Fox News’s “America’s Newsroom” that the GOP should hold the Senate, and has a shot at the House.

“There’s a possibility to keep the majority in the House,” she said. “… But it’s going to depend on our voters turning out.”

COMMENT:  Now, of course, a lot of this could be tactical talk, designed to avoid overconfidence and convince voters to get to the polls.  At this point it's all about turnout, or the "ground game" as some in politics call it.  Traditionally, the Democratic ground game has been better, based on years of experience in dragging voters to the polls in large cities.  But Republicans have been working on theirs.  I hope they're past the horse 'n buggy stage.

October 22,  2018     Permalink

PRESIDENT HOLDS – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  The president is holding at 47% in Rasmussen.  He was as high as 51% early last week, but settled at 47% at the end of the week.  It's hard to know whether this is a real drop, or a statistical correction.  Other polls have the president rising, with NBC also showing 47%.  Most polls show him lower, but rising slowly.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove. 

The latest figures include 34% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9.

COMMENT:  The president will be campaigning until election day.  The major anticipated event in these next two weeks is the possible arrival of that "migrant march" at our southern border.  The Dems will try to frame Mr. Trump's response as "cruel," in an attempt to drive up the "Hispanic vote," but I believe the overwhelming majority of Americans, and, yes, possibly including large numbers of Hispanics, will approve of a strong response.

October 22,  2018     Permalink

OCTOBER 21,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

MAKE SURE TO REGISTER! – FROM COLLEGE FIX:   A coalition of Pennsylvania college student leaders will be participating in this year’s Bridging the Gap Student Leadership Conference at Muhlenberg College next weekend.  Based on the conference theme of “This is Equity: Belonging, Unpacking and Claiming,” you just might be able to guess what’s in store, too. You got it: understanding and challenging “dominant systems of oppression” and exploring “intersectionality and identity development.”  And that’s not all. According to the Lehigh Valley Association of Independent Colleges (whose Coalition of Diversity Administrators is sponsoring the event) attendees also will “explore individuals’ concept of self advocacy [and] political power.”  Please let us know how the conference changes you.  (That is a joke.)

INTRIGUING – FROM POWERLINE:   Judicial Watch has filed a complaint with the Board of Professional Responsibility of the District of Columbia Court of Appeals against Christine Blasey Ford’s lawyers, Debra Katz, Lisa Banks, and Michael Bromwich. The complaint is based on the alleged failure of these lawyers to inform their client that Chairman Grassley offered to fly female staff investigators to meet Dr. Ford in California to obtain her testimony.  Rule 1.4(a) of the District of Columbia Rules of Professional Conduct requires: “A lawyer shall keep a client reasonably informed about the status of a matter and promptly comply with reasonable requests for information.” Rule 1.4(b) requires: “A lawyer shall explain a matter to the extent reasonably necessary to permit the client to make informed decisions regarding the representation.”  While this complaint may not go far, considering the politics of the situation, it does address the issue of whether Professor Ford was manipulated by political interests who saw her as a useful tool.  Haven't heard a word about Ford since the hearings.

EVERYTHING IS BIG IN TEXAS – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   More than 100,000 requests have been made for tickets to President Trump's rally in Texas on Monday, his re-election campaign says.  To accommodate the sheer magnitude of interest, the Trump campaign announced in a statement Sunday that it will hold a "Big Texas Tailgater" at the site of Trump's "Make America Great Again" rally at the Toyota Center in Houston.  “Texas is big, and so will be the turnout for our MAGA rally in Houston, Texas Monday,” said Michael Glassner, chief operating officer of Donald J, Trump for President, Inc. “That’s why we’ve organized the Donald Trump–Big Texas Tailgater outside the Toyota Center. We’ll have great food, live music, big screens, and a great time for all of our guests. Inside and out, the excitement at this Trump rally will be as big as Texas — it’s going to be epic."  Yup.  Huge rally tomorrow night.  I hope Fox carries it live.  The president still draws the biggest crowds of any political figure in recent memory.

October 21, 2018     Permalink

OH DEAR, CALL OUT THE SHRINKS FOR THE DEMS – AT 1:56 P.M. ET:  This may be a certified emergency.  It is covered by Obamacare.  Turns out that Trump's approval rating has now surpassed that of Barack (come to save us) Obama, at this stage of their presidencies.  From The Hill, with apparent shock and dismay: 

President Trump’s approval rating before the November elections has jumped to a higher level than former President Obama's ahead of the 2010 midterms, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. 

The poll found Trump's approval rating at its highest level for that poll yet, at 47 percent. Obama's approval rating was 45 percent around the same time in 2010, according to a similar NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in late October 2010.

Obama's approval rating was reaching a record low in October 2010, just before his party lost a significant number of seats in the House and Senate. 

Trump is a historically unpopular president among the general U.S. population, but consistently retains extremely high levels of Republican support. Recent polls have put him at around a 90 percent approval rating among Republicans. 

Many see the midterm elections as a referendum on the current president. 

Republicans and Democrats are facing a particularly tough election year, with vulnerable Democratic senators seeking to retain their seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2016 as Republicans deal with widespread Trump disapproval among suburban women and other groups. 

The new NBC/WSJ poll found voters more energized than they have been for years, with 72 percent of Democrats telling pollsters they are very interested in the upcoming election as 68 percent of Republicans said the same.

“Midterms are about mobilization, and we are headed into the stretch run with unprecedented enthusiasm among both parties,” Democratic pollster Fred Yang told NBC.

COMMENT:  Republicans generally have a higher turnout.  They have a greater tendency to vote.  We hope that tradition holds this year.

I love that sentence, "Trump is a historically unpopular president among the general U.S. population, but consistently retains extremely high levels of Republican support."  I guess Republicans aren't part of the general U.S. population.

October 21, 2018       Permalink

ANYTHING HAPPENING? – AT 12:38 P.M. ET:  Yeah, well, they're all out campaigning.  Tuesday will mark two weeks until election day, so panic is starting to set in.  Nobody in the political world is interested in much else.  World War III could break out, and the political class would ask only how it affects the 8th District in Minnesota. 

Some latest:  In both Missouri and Arizona, there are delightful little signs that the forces of good are starting to edge ahead in Senate races.   Today's report has Hawley one point ahead of McCaskill in Missouri, and yesterday's report had McSally two points ahead of the evil Sinema in Arizona.  These are tiny leads, well inside the margin of error, but I'd rather be ahead than behind. 

By contrast, there is bad Senate news from Florida.  I hope this is thoroughly inaccurate, but a new CNN poll out today has incumbent Dem Bill Nelson five points ahead of terrific Governor Rick Scott.  The most recent poll had Scott two points ahead, in a much larger sample. 

In the immortal words of William Goldman's assessment of Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything. "  This midterm will be a good test of polling, as turnout is expected to be much higher, on both sides, than it usually is.

Rasmussen has an interesting take on the generic ballot:   

With just a little over two weeks left until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress looks closer to us than it does for a lot of other pollsters.

The Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot remains in a near tie after the Democrats’ longtime lead vanished following the Kavanaugh confirmation controversy.

Republicans are madder about the Kavanaugh thing than Democrats are and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.Will they still feel that way a couple weeks from now?

Most voters think Democrats are likely to take charge of the House of Representatives following next month’s elections but expect them to fall short of capturing the Senate.

Just before the 2014 midterm elections, 62% of voters said a GOP takeover of the Senate was likely, but only 34% thought Democrats would win control of the House. Republicans gained seats in both chambers to take full control of the Congress.

COMMENT:  I think it's fascinating for Rasmussen to observe that it is an outlier in the generic ballot polls.  If they turn out to be right, they go into the Pollster Hall of Fame, which is located in the basement of a bar near the US Capitol in Washington.  If they're wrong, we will gladly forgive.

October 21,  2018     Permalink